Bihar elections: How accurate have predictions been in the past; who came closest to the mark?

NEW DELHI: Exit polls for the Bihar Assembly elections are set to be released after the second and final phase of the “mother of all polls” concludes on Tuesday. All eyes will be on whether the Nitish Kumar-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) will be able to retain power or if the Mahagathbandhan will emerge victorious.

Ahead of the results, scheduled for November 14, exit polls will offer an early glimpse of how Bihar voted. However, exit polls are not always accurate — in fact, the past two predictions by psephologists and political analysts for Bihar Assembly polls were not just off the mark but far from reality.

The Assembly elections were held in two phases — on November 6 and November 11. In the first phase, half of Bihar went to the polls, recording a historic turnout of 65.08%. The Election Commission of India has directed agencies not to publish any exit poll data until the second phase of voting concludes completely.

What are exit polls?

Exit polls are surveys conducted by questioning voters immediately after they cast their ballots. They differ from opinion polls, as they are based on how people have actually voted rather than their future intentions.

Exit polls provide an early indication of voter preferences. Since it is not possible to survey every voter, trained teams ensure the sample represents voters from diverse backgrounds.


2020 assembly polls prediction

The Times Now–C-Voter exit poll for the 2020 Bihar Assembly elections had predicted a hung assembly, projecting 116 seats for the NDA and 120 for the Mahagathbandhan (Grand Alliance). The Lok Janshakti Party (LJP) was expected to win just one seat.

Most exit polls at the time forecasted a clear edge for the Tejashwi Yadav-led Mahagathbandhan over the Nitish Kumar-led NDA.

The India Today–Axis My India exit poll had even projected a landslide victory for the RJD-led alliance, predicting 150 out of 243 seats for the Mahagathbandhan, while the NDA was expected to secure around 80 seats.

The Jan Ki Baat survey estimated 104 seats for the NDA and 128 for the Grand Alliance, with the LJP likely to bag seven seats and others four.

Meanwhile, TV9 Bharatvarsh had projected 120 seats for the Mahagathbandhan and 115 for the NDA. According to ETG Research, the UPA was likely to win 120 seats, the NDA 114, the LJP 3, and Others 6.

However, contrary to these predictions, the NDA narrowly crossed the halfway mark in the final results, securing 125 seats, while the Mahagathbandhan finished with 110.

2015 assembly polls

In 2015, the political equations were different as Nitish Kumar had joined hands with the Rashtriya Janata Dal to form the Mahagathbandhan. Meanwhile, the BJP, along with the LJP, contested the elections with smaller regional parties.

Ahead of the results, pollsters had predicted a tight race between the Mahagathbandhan and the NDA. Today’s Chanakya had predicted 155 seats for the NDA and 83 seats for the Mahagathbandhan. The India Today Group and Cicero exit poll projected 113–127 seats for the NDA and 111–123 seats for the Mahagathbandhan. C-Voter estimated that the Mahagathbandhan would win 112–132 seats, while the NDA was expected to get 101–121 seats.

Meanwhile, Nielsen had predicted 130 seats for the Mahagathbandhan and 108 for the NDA.

However, the actual results turned out to be a mirror image of the exit polls, as the Mahagathbandhan won 178 seats, the NDA was reduced to 58, and Others secured 7 seats.