Gold prices are expected to remain volatile in the coming week as investors monitor developments around the US government funding bill , labour market data , and commentary from the Federal Reserve, analysts said.
The release of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes on Thursday is also likely to influence bullion market sentiment.
"The week ahead is relatively light on data, but volatility is expected to remain high with frequency to profit-booking likely to increase, followed by renewed buying. The focus will remain on the US government funding bill, while on the data front it will be the labour market data, if released. Federal Reserve official commentary, including Fed Chair Jerome Powell's speech on Thursday, will be closely watched," said Pranav Mer, Vice President, EBG – Commodity & Currency Research at JM Financial Services Ltd, PTI quoted.
Gold prices gained another 3.5-4 per cent last week, buoyed by a weaker US dollar and concerns over the partial US government shutdown, which has delayed key macroeconomic data releases. "Market participants are also pricing in the possibility of a potential Fed rate cut later this month," Mer added.
On the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX), gold futures for December delivery surged Rs 3,222, or 2.8 per cent, last week, closing at Rs 1,18,113 per 10 grams on Friday, close to a lifetime peak of Rs 1,18,444 per 10 grams recorded earlier in the week.
Jyoti Prakash, Managing Partner, Equity and PMS at AlphaaMoney, noted that gold's appeal lies in steady gains with modest drawdowns. "Rising ETF holdings, renewed central bank demand, and stronger speculative positions are fuelling the breakout. Gold prices have disconnected from marginal production costs, with producer margins at the highest levels in 55 years," he said.
Prathamesh Mallya, DVP-Research, Non-Agri Commodities and Currencies at Angel One, said domestic gold prices have climbed sharply, touching lifetime highs. He attributed the rally to the US government shutdown, possible Fed rate cuts, and the impact of tariffs on countries including India.
Reflecting strong domestic demand, India’s gold and silver imports nearly doubled in September compared with August, ahead of the festive and wedding season, analysts said.
Globally, gold futures for December delivery rose 1.05 per cent to $3,908.90 per ounce on Friday, after touching a record $3,923.30 per ounce on Thursday.
Riya Singh, Research Analyst, Commodities and Currency at Emkay Global Financial Services told PTI "Gold extended its rally to a fresh all-time high last week, marking its fifth consecutive session of gains, reinforcing its status as a safe-haven amid US political and monetary turbulence. The immediate catalyst was Washington's failure to pass a government funding package, forcing an orderly shutdown of government operations for the first time in seven years."
She added that gold's year-to-date gains exceed 46 per cent, the largest annual rise since 1979, driven by strong inflows into gold-backed ETFs, heightened safe-haven demand, expectations of Fed rate cuts, and geopolitical tensions in Europe.
Silver futures also recorded strong gains. December delivery on MCX rose Rs 3,855, or 2.72 per cent, ending at Rs 1,45,744 per kilogram on Friday after hitting a record Rs 1,46,975 per kg.
"Silver continues to outperform gold, extending multi-month rallies. In September, both MCX and Comex futures recorded consecutive gains. Silver has surged 34 per cent, marking five straight months of positive performance," said Pankaj Singh, Founder and Principal Researcher at SmartWealth.ai.
On the global front, Comex silver futures for December delivery rose 3.44 per cent to settle at $47.96 per ounce, touching a lifetime high of $48.32 per ounce on Friday. Singh noted that silver's dual role as a monetary and industrial metal, strong demand from solar panels, EVs, electronics, and persistent supply deficits are supporting prices.
Pranav Mer expects domestic silver to remain volatile but retain an upside bias, with potential near-term levels between Rs 1,50,000 and Rs 1,70,000 per kg. Analysts said gold will continue to be supported by safe-haven demand, a weaker US dollar, and geopolitical uncertainties, with intermittent profit-booking adding short-term volatility.
The release of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes on Thursday is also likely to influence bullion market sentiment.
"The week ahead is relatively light on data, but volatility is expected to remain high with frequency to profit-booking likely to increase, followed by renewed buying. The focus will remain on the US government funding bill, while on the data front it will be the labour market data, if released. Federal Reserve official commentary, including Fed Chair Jerome Powell's speech on Thursday, will be closely watched," said Pranav Mer, Vice President, EBG – Commodity & Currency Research at JM Financial Services Ltd, PTI quoted.
Gold prices gained another 3.5-4 per cent last week, buoyed by a weaker US dollar and concerns over the partial US government shutdown, which has delayed key macroeconomic data releases. "Market participants are also pricing in the possibility of a potential Fed rate cut later this month," Mer added.
On the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX), gold futures for December delivery surged Rs 3,222, or 2.8 per cent, last week, closing at Rs 1,18,113 per 10 grams on Friday, close to a lifetime peak of Rs 1,18,444 per 10 grams recorded earlier in the week.
Jyoti Prakash, Managing Partner, Equity and PMS at AlphaaMoney, noted that gold's appeal lies in steady gains with modest drawdowns. "Rising ETF holdings, renewed central bank demand, and stronger speculative positions are fuelling the breakout. Gold prices have disconnected from marginal production costs, with producer margins at the highest levels in 55 years," he said.
Prathamesh Mallya, DVP-Research, Non-Agri Commodities and Currencies at Angel One, said domestic gold prices have climbed sharply, touching lifetime highs. He attributed the rally to the US government shutdown, possible Fed rate cuts, and the impact of tariffs on countries including India.
Reflecting strong domestic demand, India’s gold and silver imports nearly doubled in September compared with August, ahead of the festive and wedding season, analysts said.
Globally, gold futures for December delivery rose 1.05 per cent to $3,908.90 per ounce on Friday, after touching a record $3,923.30 per ounce on Thursday.
Riya Singh, Research Analyst, Commodities and Currency at Emkay Global Financial Services told PTI "Gold extended its rally to a fresh all-time high last week, marking its fifth consecutive session of gains, reinforcing its status as a safe-haven amid US political and monetary turbulence. The immediate catalyst was Washington's failure to pass a government funding package, forcing an orderly shutdown of government operations for the first time in seven years."
She added that gold's year-to-date gains exceed 46 per cent, the largest annual rise since 1979, driven by strong inflows into gold-backed ETFs, heightened safe-haven demand, expectations of Fed rate cuts, and geopolitical tensions in Europe.
Silver futures also recorded strong gains. December delivery on MCX rose Rs 3,855, or 2.72 per cent, ending at Rs 1,45,744 per kilogram on Friday after hitting a record Rs 1,46,975 per kg.
"Silver continues to outperform gold, extending multi-month rallies. In September, both MCX and Comex futures recorded consecutive gains. Silver has surged 34 per cent, marking five straight months of positive performance," said Pankaj Singh, Founder and Principal Researcher at SmartWealth.ai.
On the global front, Comex silver futures for December delivery rose 3.44 per cent to settle at $47.96 per ounce, touching a lifetime high of $48.32 per ounce on Friday. Singh noted that silver's dual role as a monetary and industrial metal, strong demand from solar panels, EVs, electronics, and persistent supply deficits are supporting prices.
Pranav Mer expects domestic silver to remain volatile but retain an upside bias, with potential near-term levels between Rs 1,50,000 and Rs 1,70,000 per kg. Analysts said gold will continue to be supported by safe-haven demand, a weaker US dollar, and geopolitical uncertainties, with intermittent profit-booking adding short-term volatility.
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